The Wheelhouse Preview: NL Central

With the signs of spring and baseball slowly approaching, The Wheelhouse will be unveiling its MLB division previews over the next couple of weeks leading up to Opening Day on April 5. Today, we begin with the NL West

I’ll be honest, the NL Central is one of those divisions that I can never predict prior to the season. I have no clue what these teams will do from year to year. Well OK, I know where the Pirates will be, but as for the rest of the teams who the hell knows. I could seriously pick this division based on recent history, and I think that’s pretty much what I’m going to do as I try to break down this division.

Chicago Cubs – Despite the fact that the Cubs continue to just not show up for the playoffs, they still remain the best team in the NL Central. They went 97-64 last season and didn’t really lose much besides Mark DeRosa, Jason Marquis and Kerry Wood. The starting rotation is still solid with Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster, Ted Lilly and Rich Harden. If Harden actually stays healthy for a season, the Cubs will cruise for most of the summer. The departure of Wood leaves a hole at closer but waiting in the wings in Carlos Marmol and former Marlins closer Kevin Gregg will be ready should Marmol falter early this season.

The North Side’s offense will keep blasting away in the bandbox that is Wrigley Field. Milton Bradley was added in the offseason to an already potent lineup that includes Alfonso Soriano, Aramis Ramirez, Derek Lee and Geovany Soto, who is looking like one of the best young-hitting catchers in the game. Don’t overlook that Bradley pick up as he quietly led the American League in on-base percentage with a .436 clip while hitting .321 for third-best in the AL. Who cares if these guys disappear in October? The NL Central is the Cubs division to lose, which means we get another whole season of hearing back how this could finally be the Cubs year to end the curse! Ugh, this is going to be a long season. Prediction: First in the NL Central

St. Louis Cardinals – I’ve given up trying to figure the Cardinals out. Every year on paper, the Cards don’t really look that talented, but they always end up competing for the division while finishing like 10 games over .500. Like him or not, Tony LaRussa gets his teams to play…period. He does more with less than any field general in baseball without a doubt. So as usual this team will be there all season. And why wouldn’t they be with Albert Pujols doing his thing every season. Pujols will drive in 100 plus, Ryan Ludwick won’t match his breakout season, but he’ll be a force in the lineup and young guys like Skip Schumaker, Brian Barden, Brenden Ryan and Chris Duncan will fill their roles out nicely and get the job done. The pitching staff won 86 games last year and that was pretty much without Chris Carpenter. Carpenter is healthy this spring and is tearing it up. He’ll return as the ace of the rotation while Adam Wainwright, Kyle Lohse, Todd Wellemeyer and Joel Pineiro will do enough for this team. Lohse and Wellemeyer both had winning records last season with mid-3.00 ERA’s…now that’s unbelievable. With Carpenter returning to take the pressure off of those pitchers a bit, expect the Cardinals to be in the hunt all season…as usual. Prediction: 2nd Place

Cincinnati Reds – Stay with me on this one. When we look back on the 2009 season, I think one of the surprise teams in the National League will be the Reds. Trading Ken Griffey Jr. was one of the best things this could of done. They are loaded with young talent and just enough experience to be able to put that combination together and surprise some teams. Joey Votto and Jay Bruce showed what they could do last season and they are two studs that should be featured in this lineup for years to come. Then you have 2B Brandon Phillips who can do it all from hitting the deep ball to stealing 25-30 bases a season. Bruce, Votto, Phillips, Edwin Encarnacion all hit 20-plus home runs last season and should all improve. Plus, Chris Dickerson is another up and coming prospect that should see plenty of playing time in the outfield. The Reds also signed speedster Willy Taveras this offseason to ignite the Reds at the top of the order. Problem was, his on-base percentage was horrendous last year, but he still stole 68 bases. If he can get on base more in front of the young hitters in their launching pad of a ballpark, then look out for the Reds to put up some runs.

The Reds rotation is another haven for young prospects. Edinson Volquez arrived in a flurry last year, going 17-6 with a 3.21 ERA in his first full season in the Majors. The scary thing is Volquez has the chance to get even better and he’s joined on the staff by Bronson Arroyo, Aaron Harang, Johnny Cueto and former Diamondback Micah Owings. Owings might not be the greatest pitcher, but hell every fifth day he’ll add another potent bat to the lineup. And if you think I’m kidding, look up Owings hitting stats in his career. And to close out games, Cincy has a capable setup man in Dave Weathers and quietly one of the game’s most consistent closers as of late in Francisco Cordero. The bottom line is the Reds have plenty of things going right for them. I really like their chances to be a surprise team this year.Prediction: 3rd Place (but should compete for most of the season).

Milwaukee Brewers – The Brew Crew had their storybook finish to the regular season last year with the C.C. Sabathia show to clinch a wildcard and first postseason birth since they were part of the American League. It ended with a quick exit from the playoffs from the hands of eventual champions Philadelphia Phillies. The problem for the Brewers in 2009 is they lost Sabathia, Ben Sheets and Eric Gagne while Salomon Torres retired. They didn’t really add much besides Trevor Hoffman and Braden Looper. The staff features two young prospects in Yovani Gallardo and Manny Parra, who have both showed promise but I think it’s just too early for Milwaukee to rely on these guys to anchor the rotation. And if any injuries happen, which Gallardo is coming off of one, the depth is nowhere to be found. The Brewers shouldn’t have a problem hitting the ball with Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, J.J. Hardy, Corey Hart and Mike Cameron, but other prospects Rickie Weeks and Bill Hall have struggled to hit about .230 consistently. I just see this team dropping off big time by losing an ace in Sabathia. Let’s face it, this team was not running to the wildcard spot without him last year, and I just see this team fall back toward .500 this season.Prediction: 4th Place

Houston Astros – The Astros are just like the Cardinals…every year since the retirement of Jeff Bagwell and Craig Biggio, you just have to count them out, and then they put together some incredible run and finish somewhere around 86-90 wins. This team finished 86-75 last year…I have no idea how that happened. I do not expect that to happen in 2009. When your biggest free-agent move was losing Brad Ausmus and signing Pudge Rodriguez, you know it’s been a quiet offseason. Hitting wise, the Astros are set with studs Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee with soon-to-be-stud Hunter Pence. Who knows what to expect out of Miguel Tejeda or Kazuo Matsui, but this team is a little light on talent and not just in the lineup. There’s Roy Oswalt at the top and then there’s everyone else. When Wandy Rodriguez, Mike Hampton, Brian Moehler and Brandon Backe are the rest of your rotation, you have problems. Of course, the Astros owner will once again ignore all that and make a ridiculous move in mid-July to go for it! (See last year when they picked up LaTroy Hawkins). I don’t get the Astros and therefore, I don’t like them to do very well in the NL this year.Prediction: 5th Place

Pittsburgh Pirates – Hey, someone has to end up in the basement, and it might as well be the Pirates, who have made that a habit in the majority of my lifetime. The only story in Pittsburgh this summer (if it’s not players’ wives stealing babies) is the infamous sports record they are about to set for most consecutive losing seasons. The Steelers opening training camp up in July will also be the main story of the summer, but back to the Buccos. They’ve already had 16 losing seasons. They are ready to make it a record 17 straight losing seasons. Think about that for a moment. I was 10 years old the last time the Pirates put together a winning season. We’ve had four different presidents during that time. Forget about it, don’t expect the Pirates to compete this year or even next year. I figure they just want to shatter the record to own something. The ONLY possibility that I could fathom for the Pirates to reach .500 and actually be decent is if Paul Maholm, Ian Snell, Zach Duke all put together the great seasons we’ve seen them have before, but actually all have those great seasons all together in the same season. Like I said, forget about it. The Pirates might not be in the basement, but it doesn’t matter because they are headed for another losing season at PNC Park.Prediction: It's gonna be cold, it's gonna be gray, and it's gonna last you for the rest of your life. (If you can name the movie that line's from, you win…well nothing, you’re just cool).

That’s all I have for the NL Central. See what I was saying about predicting it from recent history? You can slot in the Cubs at the top, the Pirates at the bottom and then the middle four teams are pretty much a crap shoot. Expect this division to be tight for most of the season with the Cubs pulling away down the stretch. With the Dodgers and D-backs strong out west and the stacked NL East, barring a midseason trade for a pitcher like Sabathia, I wouldn’t expect the wildcard to come out of this division.